* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012010 06/30/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 77 78 78 75 68 63 58 52 46 41 38 V (KT) LAND 70 74 77 78 61 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 70 74 78 81 66 39 30 28 27 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KT) 6 6 11 14 13 17 14 18 23 24 25 27 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -4 -4 0 9 7 10 3 10 6 N/A SHEAR DIR 2 347 341 350 351 5 57 60 59 68 62 68 N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 147 143 142 143 145 143 142 142 142 142 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 130 126 126 128 129 124 121 120 120 121 N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.6 -48.9 -48.1 -48.7 -49.0 -47.5 -49.3 -48.9 -50.1 -49.8 -50.9 -50.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 12 10 10 12 8 10 7 11 7 11 N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 82 81 83 84 86 85 82 76 73 72 70 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 28 28 25 21 18 10 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 130 129 132 132 120 113 81 60 48 47 43 47 N/A 200 MB DIV 48 46 77 34 62 102 -34 43 -22 34 -5 19 N/A LAND (KM) 265 193 122 40 -40 -252 -400 -233 -204 -200 -168 -172 N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.5 23.8 24.0 24.2 24.4 24.4 24.3 23.9 23.6 23.4 23.3 23.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.2 95.9 96.6 97.4 98.2 100.3 102.3 104.0 104.1 104.0 104.3 104.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 4 1 1 1 1 N/A HEAT CONTENT 55 43 37 7 24 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. -18. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -11. -16. -17. -17. -18. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 8. 5. -2. -7. -12. -17. -24. -29. -32. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012010 ALEX 06/30/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012010 ALEX 06/30/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012010 ALEX 06/30/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 6( 10) 0( 10) 0( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 56 0( 56) 0( 56) 0( 56) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)