* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012010 06/30/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 80 81 82 79 72 68 61 55 46 42 38 V (KT) LAND 75 78 80 55 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 75 78 82 58 44 32 28 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 4 6 7 8 5 8 14 16 23 25 33 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 0 0 3 1 1 4 2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 11 354 3 2 353 54 60 47 57 62 84 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 142 142 144 146 145 144 143 143 142 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 126 125 128 130 131 127 123 122 122 120 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.6 -47.9 -48.6 -49.0 -47.7 -48.5 -48.6 -49.1 -49.9 -50.2 -50.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 10 11 9 9 6 7 6 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 80 83 83 85 84 81 76 73 72 68 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 28 27 22 18 14 10 6 5 3 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 113 127 133 128 133 107 82 79 60 51 42 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 80 50 38 76 13 0 19 0 16 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 152 76 0 -108 -216 -435 -253 -171 -126 -66 -52 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.4 24.7 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.0 24.5 24.0 23.6 23.3 23.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.2 96.9 97.6 98.7 99.8 102.4 104.3 104.9 105.1 105.6 105.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 10 11 11 6 3 2 2 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 21 1 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. -20. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -12. -16. -16. -18. -18. -20. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 4. -3. -7. -14. -20. -29. -33. -37. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012010 ALEX 06/30/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 19% is 7.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012010 ALEX 06/30/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012010 ALEX 06/30/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 8 0( 8) 0( 8) 0( 8) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)