* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012010 07/01/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 89 90 90 89 85 77 69 61 51 43 39 35 V (KT) LAND 85 69 52 41 35 29 28 27 27 23 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 74 54 42 35 29 27 27 27 30 30 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 4 10 18 12 10 6 19 24 27 32 33 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -5 0 4 4 4 6 5 2 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 2 19 4 38 39 60 57 67 84 84 78 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 142 144 144 145 143 143 143 141 140 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 125 127 130 131 131 125 122 122 122 120 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.4 -49.1 -49.2 -48.2 -47.6 -49.0 -48.5 -49.7 -49.7 -50.6 -50.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 9 11 11 7 8 5 8 5 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 82 84 84 83 82 72 71 71 69 70 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 26 21 18 14 12 8 6 4 4 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 129 144 141 141 131 98 71 58 50 49 52 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 85 71 84 57 34 0 16 -13 29 -20 22 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 47 -35 -121 -237 -354 -282 -104 -51 -37 30 60 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.0 23.5 23.2 22.8 22.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.3 98.2 99.0 100.2 101.3 103.8 105.8 106.0 105.9 106.4 106.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 11 10 5 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 24 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -13. -17. -19. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -19. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. -8. -16. -24. -34. -42. -46. -50. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012010 ALEX 07/01/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.3 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 36% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012010 ALEX 07/01/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012010 ALEX 07/01/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 0( 10) 0( 10) 0( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)