* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012010 07/01/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 77 78 78 73 69 59 57 52 47 44 40 V (KT) LAND 75 54 42 36 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 75 54 42 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 11 13 10 10 9 11 16 23 18 20 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 5 5 6 3 3 3 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 38 25 44 39 69 62 46 73 69 75 80 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 144 144 145 147 142 144 144 143 146 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 127 130 131 131 131 122 122 121 118 122 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.1 -49.5 -48.1 -47.4 -48.5 -48.5 -48.6 -49.1 -49.7 -50.2 -49.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 9 9 6 6 8 7 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 83 82 82 79 75 68 68 72 71 71 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 22 20 15 13 11 5 5 3 5 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 128 145 148 137 121 72 59 35 32 33 27 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 72 49 31 -16 10 17 -19 16 12 13 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -61 -163 -265 -381 -359 -252 -126 -163 -267 -252 -282 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.1 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.9 25.1 25.3 25.8 25.9 26.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.4 99.4 100.4 101.6 102.7 104.7 106.6 106.3 105.4 105.7 105.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 10 9 4 3 2 0 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 466 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -20. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -5. -11. -12. -14. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. -2. -6. -16. -18. -23. -28. -31. -35. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012010 ALEX 07/01/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012010 ALEX 07/01/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012010 ALEX 07/01/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)