* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALEX AL012010 07/01/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 56 57 56 54 50 45 44 41 41 40 38 V (KT) LAND 60 46 37 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 60 45 37 32 30 28 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 14 8 11 9 11 18 26 26 28 29 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 2 5 2 5 3 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 30 43 22 60 48 55 60 72 81 68 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 145 145 143 140 140 141 140 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 130 131 130 123 118 117 120 119 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -48.3 -47.5 -48.9 -49.1 -48.5 -49.8 -49.3 -50.4 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 8 8 9 6 9 5 8 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 84 83 83 81 79 73 73 72 72 76 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 14 11 10 7 5 5 4 5 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 145 150 146 134 105 71 52 55 44 40 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 68 57 -14 -37 36 -13 40 30 25 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -193 -306 -410 -318 -238 -104 -96 -133 -74 -51 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.8 23.8 23.7 23.9 24.0 24.0 23.9 24.1 23.8 23.6 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.7 100.8 101.9 103.0 104.0 105.8 105.8 105.5 106.0 106.1 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 4 0 0 2 1 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 442 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. -11. -9. -6. -3. -1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. -14. -16. -19. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -3. -4. -6. -10. -15. -16. -19. -19. -20. -22. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012010 ALEX 07/01/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012010 ALEX 07/01/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012010 ALEX 07/01/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)