* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952010 07/02/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 26 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 25 26 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 41 31 32 39 35 32 29 23 30 12 9 3 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 2 0 -1 0 2 0 -2 0 -5 0 2 SHEAR DIR 333 330 331 348 359 350 14 9 33 57 56 249 258 SST (C) 30.1 30.4 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.9 30.7 29.7 27.7 26.4 25.0 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 170 170 169 169 169 162 130 115 103 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 146 151 152 152 151 155 151 134 108 96 87 79 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -50.1 -50.5 -49.9 -50.2 -49.7 -49.5 -49.0 -49.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 8 9 6 5 9 5 10 5 13 8 14 7 700-500 MB RH 52 51 48 45 45 48 53 52 56 55 61 54 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 6 5 5 6 7 7 8 7 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -79 -57 -61 -100 -108 -108 -126 -90 -60 -14 -6 -4 10 200 MB DIV -10 -12 -23 1 9 6 -17 6 -19 -2 -7 36 -8 LAND (KM) 2 13 16 40 96 78 28 0 -116 -233 -316 -400 -518 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 30.0 30.4 31.0 31.9 32.6 33.4 34.4 LONG(DEG W) 84.0 84.6 85.1 85.8 86.5 87.9 89.1 90.1 91.1 91.9 92.5 93.4 94.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 2 3 9 27 40 24 1 0 31 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 13. 22. 27. 32. 35. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 6. 8. 10. 10. 5. -2. -8. -11. -10. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 3. 0. -6. -8. -9. -6. -8. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952010 INVEST 07/02/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952010 INVEST 07/02/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952010 INVEST 07/02/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)