* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952010 07/02/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 26 26 24 22 19 19 18 18 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 26 26 24 22 20 22 25 26 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 19 17 16 16 17 20 25 26 SHEAR (KT) 28 31 38 36 28 33 23 24 23 24 30 42 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -3 0 2 2 2 1 4 2 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 327 324 341 353 356 357 19 7 27 14 2 5 43 SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.4 30.7 30.9 30.4 28.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 169 170 170 169 168 169 169 171 172 146 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 143 149 152 150 145 141 146 152 162 155 126 112 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.1 -50.3 -50.5 -50.6 -50.7 -50.8 -51.4 -52.6 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 7 7 8 7 10 8 10 8 10 7 8 700-500 MB RH 53 52 49 53 53 55 58 60 59 60 59 58 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 6 7 8 6 8 7 6 4 4 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR -52 -57 -92 -108 -90 -100 -51 -70 -55 -77 -33 -38 -3 200 MB DIV -11 -16 -20 19 21 -1 17 14 -3 0 16 32 24 LAND (KM) 72 82 94 119 183 174 155 88 16 33 -79 -255 -186 LAT (DEG N) 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 27.8 27.8 28.3 29.1 30.1 31.2 32.4 33.7 LONG(DEG W) 84.5 84.8 85.0 85.9 86.7 88.3 88.7 89.3 89.9 89.0 86.5 84.4 81.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 5 8 7 5 3 4 5 9 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 10 17 27 41 50 44 45 57 14 2 37 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 13. 21. 27. 33. 37. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 8. 9. 9. 5. -1. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -1. -2. -2. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952010 INVEST 07/02/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952010 INVEST 07/02/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952010 INVEST 07/02/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)