* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952010 07/03/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 24 25 26 23 22 19 21 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 24 25 23 23 26 26 27 27 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 19 19 17 18 24 26 26 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 27 34 26 23 29 35 20 21 14 19 24 29 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 1 2 -4 2 2 3 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 323 335 347 353 352 14 11 12 5 351 339 356 337 SST (C) 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.7 30.7 28.8 27.9 28.6 28.5 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 170 169 169 170 170 146 131 141 141 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 149 148 147 146 145 154 155 120 105 113 114 110 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.2 -50.4 -50.7 -49.9 -50.4 -50.0 -50.4 -50.8 -52.0 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 8 9 6 9 5 10 6 11 5 10 700-500 MB RH 58 57 56 58 54 59 57 63 64 62 61 61 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -88 -101 -78 -89 -88 -77 -91 -45 -50 -13 -10 41 200 MB DIV 1 -7 14 24 -3 -13 16 -14 24 25 43 -7 44 LAND (KM) 103 131 178 223 171 107 -4 -40 -194 -253 -207 -213 -261 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 29.2 30.6 32.1 32.7 32.4 32.6 33.0 LONG(DEG W) 85.1 85.7 86.3 87.1 87.8 88.9 89.4 89.6 89.6 89.3 88.9 88.3 87.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 6 4 6 8 5 2 2 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 30 39 47 51 49 52 27 28 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 22. 27. 32. 35. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 6. 0. -3. -6. -7. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 3. 2. -1. 1. -3. -5. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952010 INVEST 07/03/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952010 INVEST 07/03/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952010 INVEST 07/03/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)