* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952010 07/03/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 21 22 22 24 24 24 23 25 29 33 35 V (KT) LAND 20 19 21 22 22 24 24 24 23 22 25 26 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 19 18 18 18 19 19 24 26 26 SHEAR (KT) 35 31 31 27 34 23 25 24 16 18 8 11 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -5 0 0 -2 1 -2 4 -2 2 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 336 354 4 360 359 23 26 57 56 87 64 91 54 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.6 29.0 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 170 170 170 169 169 169 167 160 150 146 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 146 148 149 148 147 145 142 139 135 128 125 123 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.1 -50.2 -50.5 -50.3 -50.2 -50.6 -50.3 -50.4 -50.5 -50.5 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 10 8 10 8 11 9 13 13 14 13 700-500 MB RH 59 57 56 53 53 57 56 59 62 62 60 60 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 7 8 6 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -96 -113 -86 -88 -100 -58 -37 13 15 59 59 51 62 200 MB DIV 0 4 7 -5 10 7 3 2 20 31 10 17 20 LAND (KM) 244 201 164 138 133 97 100 72 47 -24 -95 -211 -323 LAT (DEG N) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.3 28.7 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 LONG(DEG W) 87.0 87.8 88.5 89.3 90.0 91.2 92.2 93.1 94.0 95.2 96.7 98.5 100.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 6 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 49 45 44 49 51 36 14 8 5 28 27 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 21. 27. 32. 36. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 5. -1. -4. -7. -7. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 5. 9. 13. 15. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952010 INVEST 07/03/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952010 INVEST 07/03/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952010 INVEST 07/03/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)