* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952010 07/03/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 32 34 33 34 35 38 37 36 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 21 20 34 28 20 22 21 16 10 3 4 3 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 -4 1 1 0 -2 3 0 1 -2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 9 5 10 21 26 39 38 39 87 292 331 52 191 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.7 29.7 27.9 26.8 25.8 25.2 24.6 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 170 169 170 162 134 121 111 107 103 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 147 147 148 149 156 136 112 102 94 91 89 84 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.5 -50.5 -50.4 -50.3 -49.9 -49.9 -50.2 -50.7 -51.0 -51.8 -52.3 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 8 7 9 7 10 7 9 6 9 4 6 700-500 MB RH 57 53 53 54 54 50 54 55 53 53 48 46 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 5 5 3 4 4 9 8 10 850 MB ENV VOR -84 -87 -93 -94 -63 -67 -10 -25 7 -24 -27 -56 -48 200 MB DIV 0 -7 -4 1 23 5 38 27 21 8 20 17 16 LAND (KM) 251 203 178 132 77 -14 -89 -222 -283 -392 -500 -624 -570 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.5 27.5 28.0 28.4 29.3 30.6 31.8 32.9 34.0 35.2 36.4 37.8 LONG(DEG W) 87.6 88.4 89.2 89.7 90.1 90.7 92.0 91.9 90.7 89.5 87.7 85.4 82.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 6 5 7 7 7 7 8 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 46 44 42 53 43 2 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 20. 24. 27. 28. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 5. 7. 8. 6. 3. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. -1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. 9. 10. 13. 12. 11. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952010 INVEST 07/03/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952010 INVEST 07/03/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952010 INVEST 07/03/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)