* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962010 07/04/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 31 35 40 48 54 60 66 69 72 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 31 32 37 45 51 57 63 48 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 31 35 40 48 58 49 34 SHEAR (KT) 16 18 15 14 17 11 8 7 6 3 3 6 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 1 0 3 1 3 -1 -3 1 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 278 298 302 305 305 324 318 108 280 164 247 115 269 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.5 29.0 28.4 28.7 29.2 29.4 29.2 28.7 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 162 165 161 152 142 146 154 158 154 146 140 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 158 160 153 143 130 132 138 141 136 130 123 124 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 12 12 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 12 12 700-500 MB RH 75 73 74 75 74 71 69 69 69 70 71 77 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -41 -28 -19 -6 -2 4 23 21 51 53 53 49 200 MB DIV 39 35 22 13 8 47 26 68 28 45 17 1 12 LAND (KM) 300 292 311 205 75 13 183 321 460 291 105 -82 -249 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.3 19.0 19.7 20.4 21.7 22.9 23.8 24.5 25.1 25.5 25.8 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 82.0 83.2 84.4 85.4 86.4 88.1 89.6 91.1 92.7 94.4 96.2 98.1 99.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 8 8 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 107 111 114 109 82 0 22 32 43 47 26 23 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 13. 20. 25. 30. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 23. 29. 35. 41. 44. 47. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962010 INVEST 07/04/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 104.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962010 INVEST 07/04/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962010 INVEST 07/04/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)