* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952010 07/04/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 25 25 30 31 35 38 43 44 45 42 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 25 25 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 27 27 25 28 29 15 19 6 8 9 11 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -1 -6 0 -6 1 1 4 1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 19 31 40 41 50 50 43 11 11 226 241 217 251 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.2 28.2 27.5 26.2 25.4 24.5 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 170 170 170 166 154 138 129 115 107 100 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 148 147 145 146 142 130 117 109 97 91 86 83 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.2 -49.4 -49.1 -49.4 -49.1 -49.6 -49.6 -50.1 -49.9 -50.4 -50.3 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 9 11 8 8 14 10 15 11 14 9 14 8 700-500 MB RH 53 54 52 55 56 55 53 54 53 60 67 70 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 5 4 4 5 3 4 2 5 4 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -82 -35 -20 -18 1 20 28 38 55 29 18 5 -1 200 MB DIV -13 -11 -19 -10 -12 29 13 24 42 36 0 14 2 LAND (KM) 211 172 154 155 133 46 -96 -231 -364 -517 -637 -778 -705 LAT (DEG N) 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.5 29.2 29.9 30.5 31.0 31.6 31.9 32.2 32.3 LONG(DEG W) 90.0 90.8 91.6 92.3 92.9 94.4 95.7 97.2 98.7 100.3 101.8 103.5 105.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 43 54 61 40 15 5 26 0 0 9999 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 19. 23. 27. 28. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 0. 0. 5. 6. 10. 13. 18. 19. 20. 17. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952010 INVEST 07/04/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952010 INVEST 07/04/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952010 INVEST 07/04/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)