* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962010 07/04/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 39 47 55 61 68 72 76 77 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 32 28 33 39 46 51 54 36 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 29 27 31 37 45 53 63 40 SHEAR (KT) 6 6 3 11 10 7 12 6 15 6 13 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 4 3 4 3 1 5 0 1 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 330 343 276 334 354 3 11 6 360 349 354 353 20 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.5 28.8 28.4 28.4 28.9 29.4 29.1 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 164 164 160 148 141 141 149 158 153 145 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 155 156 155 151 137 129 128 135 143 139 130 128 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 -51.6 -52.3 -51.3 -52.4 -51.8 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 12 9 8 12 9 12 10 12 9 14 10 700-500 MB RH 77 76 78 77 76 72 74 70 74 70 75 72 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -6 3 3 2 16 26 37 51 53 54 52 46 200 MB DIV 23 17 27 22 20 22 15 26 29 35 14 42 13 LAND (KM) 125 117 169 226 135 -46 -102 42 211 348 196 20 -163 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.8 17.4 17.9 18.4 19.4 20.3 21.1 21.7 22.3 22.7 23.0 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 83.0 83.9 84.7 85.5 86.3 87.9 89.3 90.7 92.2 93.9 95.7 97.6 99.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 82 90 84 77 66 19 5 30 59 70 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 20. 25. 29. 33. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 22. 30. 36. 43. 47. 51. 52. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962010 INVEST 07/04/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 71.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962010 INVEST 07/04/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962010 INVEST 07/04/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)