* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952010 07/04/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 18 17 17 18 21 25 31 34 35 33 30 25 V (KT) LAND 20 18 17 17 18 21 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 17 17 20 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 18 18 19 22 20 12 7 4 11 31 29 36 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -3 -4 0 0 -1 6 0 1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 34 30 31 38 56 32 57 266 209 237 237 259 275 SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.5 29.9 28.1 26.3 24.4 22.9 21.8 20.9 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 170 170 170 166 137 115 99 89 83 79 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 148 150 151 150 140 114 97 85 77 73 70 68 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -49.6 -49.4 -49.6 -49.4 -49.7 -49.8 -49.7 -49.7 -49.9 -50.1 -50.7 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 8 7 11 9 12 11 11 8 10 8 12 700-500 MB RH 53 50 50 55 53 52 56 54 58 62 61 61 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 3 2 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -59 -50 -50 -32 -5 -14 21 5 -1 -23 -23 -22 -29 200 MB DIV -15 -21 -3 2 1 13 25 8 42 31 8 7 11 LAND (KM) 166 125 80 63 44 -64 -181 -292 -434 -555 -665 -755 -845 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 28.0 28.4 28.9 29.3 30.3 31.4 32.3 33.3 34.1 34.8 35.4 36.0 LONG(DEG W) 90.0 90.5 91.0 91.5 91.9 92.8 93.7 94.8 96.1 97.1 98.1 98.8 99.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 47 52 32 12 6 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 20. 24. 26. 27. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 5. 11. 14. 15. 13. 10. 5. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952010 INVEST 07/04/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952010 INVEST 07/04/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952010 INVEST 07/04/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)