* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962010 07/04/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 46 51 56 60 66 70 73 74 73 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 46 44 50 54 60 64 66 68 40 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 40 43 43 47 52 58 66 75 82 46 SHEAR (KT) 7 4 11 11 12 21 13 14 7 9 14 9 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 18 342 330 327 331 339 8 344 22 351 59 21 33 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.4 28.7 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.1 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 162 164 164 158 146 143 149 154 158 153 142 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 154 155 154 147 134 129 133 138 142 138 128 127 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 9 9 11 10 11 11 11 10 11 11 13 700-500 MB RH 75 78 78 77 74 72 72 68 69 70 71 73 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 4 9 0 -5 -12 -6 17 27 39 48 40 42 15 200 MB DIV 20 29 19 18 23 -13 32 3 39 8 41 28 15 LAND (KM) 124 183 257 231 158 -20 83 215 334 450 242 27 -207 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.6 21.0 22.3 23.2 23.9 24.4 24.9 25.4 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 83.5 84.1 84.7 85.3 85.9 87.1 88.3 89.6 91.2 93.0 95.0 97.1 99.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 78 86 95 102 101 65 5 32 37 41 44 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 23. 27. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 21. 26. 30. 36. 40. 43. 44. 43. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962010 INVEST 07/04/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 92.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 3.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962010 INVEST 07/04/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962010 INVEST 07/04/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)