* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962010 07/05/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 43 47 51 53 58 61 66 67 69 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 43 40 45 47 52 55 61 51 35 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 35 37 36 40 42 46 52 59 56 36 SHEAR (KT) 5 9 14 14 15 20 13 20 11 12 9 9 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 2 0 2 5 4 0 -1 -3 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 303 320 322 332 321 350 337 345 351 348 15 36 48 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.4 28.7 28.5 28.9 29.3 29.3 28.9 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 160 164 164 158 146 143 150 156 157 150 141 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 153 156 155 148 134 130 135 140 141 134 125 127 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -51.5 -51.7 -50.9 -51.5 -51.0 -51.6 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 10 12 13 10 12 10 12 9 13 11 15 700-500 MB RH 75 76 76 72 72 72 69 69 68 69 67 70 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 8 7 6 6 5 6 5 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 16 5 -2 -12 -7 -4 0 21 23 27 42 24 5 200 MB DIV 31 16 23 31 8 0 21 23 37 -1 41 -1 35 LAND (KM) 184 209 274 256 166 -20 86 237 363 376 155 -45 -245 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.0 19.7 21.1 22.3 23.3 24.0 24.6 25.2 25.6 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 82.9 83.6 84.3 85.1 85.8 87.1 88.4 90.0 91.7 93.7 95.8 97.8 99.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 10 10 10 9 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 80 93 100 109 102 66 5 38 33 46 28 24 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 23. 27. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 21. 23. 28. 31. 36. 37. 39. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962010 INVEST 07/05/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 96.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962010 INVEST 07/05/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962010 INVEST 07/05/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)