* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952010 07/05/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 19 21 26 30 35 36 37 35 34 30 V (KT) LAND 20 19 17 20 22 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 19 22 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 24 22 8 14 16 6 7 14 18 20 20 28 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -1 -3 -5 0 1 5 6 3 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 19 32 11 354 1 355 328 225 237 242 267 260 289 SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.3 30.0 29.5 27.8 25.9 24.2 23.1 22.2 21.8 21.4 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 168 159 133 112 98 90 85 83 80 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 152 148 142 134 112 95 84 78 74 72 70 69 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -49.7 -49.7 -49.7 -49.7 -49.5 -49.6 -49.2 -49.5 -49.5 -49.8 -50.2 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 11 13 9 8 13 8 13 7 13 7 13 6 700-500 MB RH 50 50 52 55 57 61 56 60 65 65 65 61 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -15 -7 -18 -3 28 41 30 15 14 12 7 16 200 MB DIV 6 -6 31 34 24 34 32 53 12 22 -9 10 -23 LAND (KM) 42 44 -2 -27 -73 -205 -360 -511 -628 -718 -774 -833 -860 LAT (DEG N) 28.9 29.3 29.7 30.1 30.4 31.3 32.2 33.0 33.5 33.9 34.0 34.1 34.1 LONG(DEG W) 91.2 91.9 92.6 93.3 94.0 95.4 96.9 98.3 99.5 100.5 101.3 102.1 102.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 10 6 2 33 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 11. 17. 20. 23. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. 8. 6. 4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 10. 15. 16. 17. 15. 14. 10. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952010 INVEST 07/05/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952010 INVEST 07/05/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952010 INVEST 07/05/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)