* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962010 07/05/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 26 31 36 45 51 59 62 66 66 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 26 31 36 45 51 40 31 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 23 23 24 27 31 36 33 29 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 17 13 13 17 14 2 3 5 3 4 2 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 2 0 0 -1 -5 -1 0 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 317 329 309 306 326 322 37 187 194 255 288 193 350 SST (C) 29.3 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.5 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 152 150 153 160 166 162 162 158 150 145 141 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 139 137 139 144 148 145 143 136 127 121 118 118 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.2 -51.3 -50.2 -50.6 -50.2 -50.5 -50.3 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 12 11 10 12 10 12 9 13 9 14 9 700-500 MB RH 81 75 72 72 71 66 64 69 70 70 71 64 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 6 6 6 5 6 5 8 8 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR -1 7 23 17 4 6 -12 5 3 16 8 6 -9 200 MB DIV 18 37 40 10 18 9 0 27 0 38 -14 20 -20 LAND (KM) 121 68 109 179 258 426 334 227 54 -83 -178 -274 -338 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.8 22.5 23.2 23.9 25.1 26.2 27.4 28.3 29.0 29.3 29.6 29.5 LONG(DEG W) 85.7 86.4 87.1 87.8 88.4 89.9 91.7 93.7 95.4 96.9 98.0 99.1 100.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 8 6 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 91 16 6 13 31 48 48 56 16 29 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 25. 29. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 6. 11. 20. 26. 34. 37. 41. 41. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962010 INVEST 07/05/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962010 INVEST 07/05/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962010 INVEST 07/05/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)