* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962010 07/05/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 43 47 53 58 62 64 67 65 64 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 32 35 38 44 49 53 56 43 32 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 30 29 36 40 46 53 60 48 33 29 SHEAR (KT) 12 12 15 12 8 12 7 9 6 12 18 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 3 2 1 0 1 -1 0 2 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 344 315 335 331 347 318 2 357 1 2 19 30 51 SST (C) 29.6 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.7 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 154 148 144 141 147 157 156 153 146 143 145 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 143 137 132 128 133 141 140 135 129 123 125 125 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -50.8 -50.8 -50.7 -51.0 -51.2 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 78 75 77 72 69 67 71 72 72 77 76 73 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 7 7 10 6 7 5 5 5 7 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 0 11 15 19 30 26 39 32 27 35 17 4 -25 200 MB DIV 32 28 12 17 30 9 42 6 15 9 26 4 0 LAND (KM) 199 126 48 -53 5 183 345 438 260 94 -74 -236 -425 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.7 20.3 21.0 21.6 22.9 24.0 25.1 26.0 26.8 27.5 27.9 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 85.6 86.2 86.8 87.5 88.2 89.6 91.2 92.9 94.6 96.4 98.1 99.7 101.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 100 90 70 46 0 22 38 39 40 24 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 23. 28. 32. 34. 37. 35. 35. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962010 INVEST 07/05/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962010 INVEST 07/05/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962010 INVEST 07/05/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)