* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962010 07/06/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 41 44 49 52 57 59 62 60 59 V (KT) LAND 30 32 30 33 35 38 43 46 51 46 33 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 28 28 36 39 43 48 54 60 36 29 28 SHEAR (KT) 12 20 16 10 13 14 10 9 8 10 12 14 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 3 2 1 0 -1 2 -2 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 316 333 347 338 310 331 344 11 339 7 28 48 77 SST (C) 28.6 28.0 27.5 27.3 27.4 28.2 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 136 130 128 129 139 146 145 146 146 147 147 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 125 118 116 117 126 131 129 128 126 126 125 121 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -50.5 -51.0 -50.3 -51.0 -50.5 -51.1 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 11 12 10 12 10 13 10 14 10 16 700-500 MB RH 76 75 71 70 68 69 68 70 66 71 69 69 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 11 9 8 8 6 8 8 8 7 3 850 MB ENV VOR 11 9 11 26 20 35 18 23 26 31 12 -6 -14 200 MB DIV 19 9 20 33 16 9 27 0 29 -7 16 -3 22 LAND (KM) 137 60 -33 0 94 277 460 320 153 -8 -166 -323 -461 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.3 20.9 21.6 22.3 23.6 24.8 25.9 26.8 27.6 28.2 28.7 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 86.1 86.7 87.3 88.0 88.7 90.3 92.1 94.0 95.8 97.4 98.9 100.4 101.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 93 73 36 0 5 42 42 41 57 1 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 11. 14. 19. 22. 27. 29. 32. 30. 29. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962010 INVEST 07/06/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962010 INVEST 07/06/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962010 INVEST 07/06/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)