* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962010 07/06/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 41 46 50 55 58 60 60 60 V (KT) LAND 30 31 28 31 34 38 42 47 51 34 29 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 27 30 31 34 36 40 45 32 28 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 21 22 14 11 18 16 13 12 12 15 12 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 -2 2 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 347 359 7 331 335 356 358 39 14 33 58 79 60 SST (C) 28.5 27.8 27.3 27.3 27.5 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 134 128 128 130 141 143 142 143 146 148 148 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 124 118 117 119 128 128 127 126 127 127 127 123 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -50.9 -50.9 -50.8 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 13 12 11 11 12 11 13 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 77 73 71 68 68 70 69 71 75 72 73 70 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 3 23 20 23 37 27 31 25 24 13 -13 5 200 MB DIV 15 22 32 25 24 41 12 13 12 34 -1 15 16 LAND (KM) 114 16 -54 42 140 331 394 181 6 -165 -338 -519 -565 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.4 21.1 21.8 22.5 23.8 24.9 26.0 26.9 27.7 28.2 28.6 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 86.3 87.1 87.9 88.8 89.6 91.4 93.4 95.4 97.3 99.0 100.7 102.5 104.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 87 51 6 1 8 39 41 41 1 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 20. 25. 28. 30. 30. 30. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962010 INVEST 07/06/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962010 INVEST 07/06/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962010 INVEST 07/06/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)