* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912010 07/06/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 36 40 44 46 47 45 42 38 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 36 40 44 46 47 45 42 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 41 39 36 SHEAR (KT) 13 14 15 14 12 12 3 3 4 4 6 21 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 2 2 0 3 0 -5 -10 SHEAR DIR 69 57 61 67 61 59 82 44 136 159 235 262 281 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.0 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 132 131 128 123 120 119 119 119 120 121 122 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -54.1 -54.5 -54.8 -55.0 -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 59 54 55 48 53 50 44 42 35 34 32 33 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -16 -25 -30 -29 -38 -42 -33 -45 -31 -25 -5 3 200 MB DIV 17 28 23 24 -2 -13 3 -17 -1 -16 -49 -52 -32 LAND (KM) 1372 1268 1164 1066 969 818 663 512 395 371 459 628 717 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.1 13.4 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.2 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 144.6 145.6 146.5 147.4 148.3 149.8 151.5 153.2 154.9 156.9 159.0 161.0 162.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 10. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 19. 21. 22. 20. 17. 13. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912010 INVEST 07/06/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912010 INVEST 07/06/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY