* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912010 07/06/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 31 34 36 39 40 40 37 33 31 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 31 34 36 39 40 40 37 33 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 27 29 31 32 33 33 33 31 28 SHEAR (KT) 10 9 10 6 9 6 1 4 3 5 15 25 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 2 1 0 1 2 -4 -6 -7 SHEAR DIR 68 64 77 62 54 104 102 130 156 218 262 277 289 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.5 26.3 25.9 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.9 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 131 128 126 122 120 120 120 121 122 122 124 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -54.4 -54.7 -54.9 -55.2 -55.2 -55.1 -55.1 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 52 53 51 49 48 46 44 38 35 31 29 30 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -25 -32 -31 -33 -39 -30 -42 -32 -29 -18 0 13 200 MB DIV 29 17 9 -10 -6 -6 7 -9 -6 -27 -44 -52 -40 LAND (KM) 1234 1132 1031 948 868 713 561 443 400 474 635 771 903 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.9 14.5 15.0 15.4 15.7 15.8 15.7 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 146.1 147.1 148.0 148.9 149.7 151.4 153.0 154.7 156.5 158.6 160.8 163.0 165.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 9 9 8 9 8 10 10 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 18. 19. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 4. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 15. 12. 8. 6. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912010 INVEST 07/06/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912010 INVEST 07/06/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY