* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962010 07/07/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 32 35 41 48 54 59 63 65 66 66 V (KT) LAND 25 29 31 35 38 43 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 27 28 30 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 8 11 13 6 4 8 3 7 8 6 9 8 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 2 0 -3 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 296 308 321 357 317 51 24 32 55 50 36 17 37 SST (C) 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.3 27.9 28.2 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 132 135 140 144 142 136 140 147 150 148 145 141 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 125 131 133 130 123 125 130 131 125 121 116 112 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 -51.0 -50.5 -50.7 -50.0 -50.6 -50.3 -51.1 -51.0 -51.6 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 11 13 10 14 10 13 7 13 8 14 700-500 MB RH 72 73 74 77 76 75 78 78 75 77 72 71 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 11 10 8 9 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 61 62 65 47 49 53 40 26 13 9 -18 -24 200 MB DIV 41 33 44 52 47 26 32 3 24 8 47 5 30 LAND (KM) -11 94 220 364 357 85 -141 -351 -544 -459 -478 -567 -588 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.6 22.2 23.0 23.7 24.9 25.9 26.6 27.4 27.9 28.4 29.1 29.7 LONG(DEG W) 89.9 91.0 92.0 93.2 94.3 96.7 98.7 100.9 102.9 104.7 104.9 104.3 104.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 12 11 10 10 9 5 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 4 28 29 35 23 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 10. 16. 23. 29. 34. 38. 40. 41. 41. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962010 INVEST 07/07/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962010 INVEST 07/07/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962010 INVEST 07/07/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)