* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962010 07/07/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 39 43 48 53 54 55 54 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 39 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 28 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 13 17 12 8 8 9 10 11 12 15 11 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -1 -3 -1 -2 1 -1 -1 -1 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 297 309 331 297 341 59 20 56 49 58 89 93 118 SST (C) 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.3 27.9 28.0 28.4 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 133 138 143 144 141 135 137 142 148 153 155 155 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 128 131 132 128 122 122 127 132 136 136 133 126 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -51.1 -50.3 -50.7 -50.7 -50.7 -50.9 -51.1 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 12 10 11 11 12 10 8 5 4 2 700-500 MB RH 72 75 77 77 77 78 76 77 79 76 73 70 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 10 9 10 8 6 5 3 3 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR 66 63 70 49 40 43 53 42 32 0 14 10 33 200 MB DIV 30 41 71 77 47 12 18 6 19 13 35 -5 29 LAND (KM) 45 165 286 377 303 101 -106 -322 -467 -341 -231 -143 -81 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.8 22.3 22.8 23.2 24.0 24.7 25.4 25.9 26.4 27.1 27.7 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 90.6 91.7 92.7 93.8 94.8 96.8 98.8 100.8 102.8 105.0 107.0 108.7 109.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 4 10 33 36 40 31 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 17. 21. 26. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 14. 19. 23. 28. 29. 30. 29. 28. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962010 INVEST 07/07/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962010 INVEST 07/07/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962010 INVEST 07/07/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)