* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962010 07/07/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 43 49 55 58 58 57 52 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 9 6 1 4 6 5 7 8 10 13 3 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 3 0 -1 0 -2 -1 -3 -2 0 4 1 SHEAR DIR 311 4 274 33 57 101 41 69 73 108 130 108 43 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.3 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 138 137 135 140 147 150 151 151 149 147 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 128 124 123 121 124 129 131 133 130 127 124 120 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -50.8 -50.2 -50.5 -50.8 -50.0 -50.5 -50.3 -51.2 -50.8 -51.3 -50.7 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 13 11 10 14 10 13 6 9 1 5 0 700-500 MB RH 73 75 73 76 74 76 82 78 77 71 69 63 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 9 10 9 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 66 52 47 44 45 36 23 6 4 1 -3 5 200 MB DIV 50 59 70 19 11 28 11 20 9 49 5 3 -28 LAND (KM) 400 357 245 134 24 -185 -365 -533 -405 -289 -213 -110 -36 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.8 24.2 24.6 25.0 25.8 26.4 26.9 27.3 27.9 28.3 28.6 28.4 LONG(DEG W) 93.3 94.3 95.3 96.3 97.3 99.2 101.0 102.9 104.9 106.8 108.4 109.7 111.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 28 34 24 26 4 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 18. 24. 30. 33. 33. 32. 27. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962010 INVEST 07/07/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962010 INVEST 07/07/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962010 INVEST 07/07/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)