* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912010 07/07/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 24 25 24 25 26 26 25 23 22 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 24 25 24 25 26 26 25 23 22 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 18 18 16 SHEAR (KT) 10 12 13 8 7 7 8 6 6 12 23 31 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 1 7 6 2 3 0 0 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 69 73 76 80 60 63 22 12 327 306 321 322 332 SST (C) 25.7 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.5 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 120 117 117 116 115 115 116 119 122 125 126 129 131 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -55.0 -55.2 -55.1 -55.0 -55.0 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 47 45 40 40 36 34 28 24 23 21 24 32 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -38 -35 -21 -11 -13 0 -4 7 11 21 21 22 200 MB DIV -1 0 9 7 14 1 -2 -19 -21 -35 -34 -42 -39 LAND (KM) 917 831 746 659 575 398 241 266 457 584 777 1001 1244 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.3 17.1 16.8 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 147.7 148.5 149.3 150.2 151.0 152.9 155.0 157.3 159.8 162.4 165.1 167.6 170.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 9 14 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -10. -14. -15. -16. -17. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912010 INVEST 07/07/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912010 INVEST 07/07/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY