* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962010 07/07/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 43 47 52 56 60 63 62 60 55 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 8 6 7 10 9 10 12 8 2 2 8 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 -2 -2 -3 -2 -3 1 2 -3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 357 336 5 14 17 358 29 46 324 185 269 235 309 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.6 28.9 28.9 28.6 27.9 26.9 26.4 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 138 137 139 145 150 150 145 134 121 114 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 128 125 123 124 129 132 131 125 114 101 94 97 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.3 -50.6 -50.8 -50.5 -50.2 -50.6 -50.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 11 10 12 11 12 9 8 6 6 3 4 700-500 MB RH 76 74 75 74 75 78 75 75 71 70 69 63 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 10 10 7 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 36 27 19 20 25 7 14 -12 0 -11 7 -10 200 MB DIV 69 65 21 -9 7 -6 13 14 15 31 12 20 -21 LAND (KM) 423 300 178 54 -67 -259 -466 -512 -398 -330 -323 -308 -249 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.4 24.9 25.4 25.9 26.8 27.5 28.1 28.9 29.8 30.6 30.9 30.7 LONG(DEG W) 93.6 94.7 95.7 96.8 97.9 100.0 102.1 104.2 106.3 107.9 109.1 109.7 110.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 7 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 20 11 21 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 16. 20. 23. 24. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 15. 15. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 22. 26. 30. 33. 32. 30. 25. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962010 INVEST 07/07/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962010 INVEST 07/07/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962010 INVEST 07/07/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)