* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962010 07/08/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 46 50 54 57 58 59 58 56 55 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 35 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 8 9 14 9 11 9 8 8 1 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 -4 -2 0 10 7 SHEAR DIR 301 343 2 10 339 9 39 14 36 28 88 89 193 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.6 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 138 137 138 145 150 150 144 138 134 137 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 127 125 123 123 128 131 130 124 116 109 112 119 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -50.2 -50.8 -50.4 -51.3 -50.9 -51.6 -51.0 -51.5 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 9 12 14 11 15 9 13 4 9 5 9 700-500 MB RH 77 78 77 78 77 78 74 74 70 65 63 62 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 6 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 33 24 23 15 11 10 -6 -12 -5 8 35 43 200 MB DIV 56 24 0 21 10 -13 20 9 23 18 35 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 407 292 169 52 -63 -251 -436 -552 -451 -397 -344 -312 -284 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.1 24.7 25.3 25.8 26.7 27.5 28.1 28.8 29.3 29.5 29.2 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 93.8 94.9 95.9 96.9 97.9 99.9 101.8 103.7 105.5 106.8 107.5 107.7 107.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 5 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 27 26 19 9 21 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 16. 20. 23. 24. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 24. 27. 28. 29. 28. 26. 25. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962010 INVEST 07/08/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962010 INVEST 07/08/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962010 INVEST 07/08/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)