* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022010 07/08/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 38 41 44 47 48 51 52 51 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 11 13 13 12 15 13 13 13 13 11 3 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -4 -2 -2 -6 -1 -4 -1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 334 358 6 354 5 31 41 33 21 16 43 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.4 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 138 139 143 148 149 147 145 142 136 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 125 124 125 128 131 127 122 120 118 112 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -50.4 -50.7 -51.0 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -51.6 -51.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 11 13 12 13 11 11 11 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 75 76 74 74 75 74 70 68 67 61 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 10 8 7 6 3 3 1 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 23 18 12 22 9 15 -15 -4 3 29 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 0 24 7 1 9 9 25 33 12 21 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 293 183 73 -46 -158 -375 -555 -524 -548 -531 -559 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.4 25.0 25.6 26.0 26.4 27.1 27.5 27.9 28.4 28.9 29.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.7 95.6 96.5 97.7 98.9 101.2 103.2 103.9 104.0 104.6 104.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 10 7 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 20 17 21 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 14. 17. 18. 21. 22. 21. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022010 TWO 07/08/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022010 TWO 07/08/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022010 TWO 07/08/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)