* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912010 07/08/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 20 19 17 17 18 19 20 21 22 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 20 19 17 17 18 19 20 21 22 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 19 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 3 3 1 1 4 2 7 10 13 16 14 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 5 6 6 11 1 2 0 2 2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 114 29 360 218 303 213 276 298 317 337 340 327 329 SST (C) 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 118 118 118 118 118 120 121 122 123 125 126 128 130 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -55.2 -55.2 -55.4 -55.8 -56.0 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 6 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 44 39 37 35 34 30 26 27 26 31 31 35 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -29 -23 -20 -8 5 16 20 22 23 21 23 -5 200 MB DIV -1 -11 -9 5 0 1 -28 -34 -38 -35 -31 -25 -54 LAND (KM) 744 671 604 527 458 377 440 601 746 889 1062 1255 1424 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.8 15.9 15.9 15.7 15.3 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 149.8 150.7 151.6 152.6 153.5 155.6 157.9 160.4 162.9 165.3 167.4 169.4 171.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 14 22 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 21. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -10. -14. -15. -16. -17. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912010 INVEST 07/08/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912010 INVEST 07/08/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY