* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912010 07/08/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 18 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 18 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 3 7 7 12 9 12 16 21 19 18 18 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 3 -1 0 0 0 3 2 4 4 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 350 303 283 275 297 266 287 299 319 343 327 314 297 SST (C) 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 119 118 118 119 120 122 123 124 124 125 126 127 130 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 -55.3 -55.5 -55.6 -55.5 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 41 37 36 37 37 33 34 34 35 35 43 43 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -27 -28 -17 -7 3 15 10 22 27 38 23 2 200 MB DIV -19 -16 1 13 13 -5 -31 -34 -22 -21 -8 -30 -3 LAND (KM) 686 616 544 485 446 462 605 803 954 1095 1258 1387 1519 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.0 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.5 14.3 13.7 13.2 12.8 LONG(DEG W) 150.6 151.6 152.5 153.6 154.6 156.8 159.4 161.9 164.3 166.3 167.9 169.1 170.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 12 13 12 11 9 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 8 14 20 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. -10. -14. -15. -16. -17. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -12. -13. -12. -10. -9. -8. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912010 INVEST 07/08/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912010 INVEST 07/08/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY