* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962010 07/11/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 33 39 45 49 51 52 53 53 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 33 39 45 49 51 52 53 53 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 25 27 28 28 29 29 30 SHEAR (KT) 16 18 19 20 21 25 23 24 23 26 22 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 1 3 2 9 10 5 5 1 7 2 SHEAR DIR 96 96 103 103 102 86 107 101 95 91 84 80 96 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 150 149 147 147 147 144 144 144 141 142 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 7 8 8 9 9 7 5 4 4 2 700-500 MB RH 78 78 80 82 80 84 79 80 78 75 72 71 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 52 50 50 57 95 75 73 74 66 56 67 68 200 MB DIV 21 22 13 48 51 89 56 78 70 57 26 48 71 LAND (KM) 256 297 368 344 335 347 419 478 528 635 760 940 1038 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.1 13.2 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.6 14.8 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 92.5 93.7 94.9 96.1 97.2 99.2 101.1 103.1 105.3 107.6 110.1 112.6 115.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 12 12 11 10 10 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 6 16 23 9 1 1 9 7 28 28 25 22 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 809 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 38. 41. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 13. 19. 25. 29. 31. 32. 33. 33. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962010 INVEST 07/11/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962010 INVEST 07/11/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED