* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962010 07/12/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 31 39 48 57 64 65 63 61 57 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 27 31 39 48 57 64 65 63 61 57 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 33 38 42 43 41 38 SHEAR (KT) 16 15 18 19 20 20 11 9 11 12 16 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 -1 -4 7 8 5 5 6 2 9 2 SHEAR DIR 89 97 101 99 104 80 80 84 103 97 114 107 120 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.2 27.5 26.6 25.8 25.3 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 151 152 153 153 147 141 131 123 117 93 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -51.9 -52.9 -52.1 -53.3 -52.7 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 9 10 8 10 7 7 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 82 83 82 80 81 81 81 82 79 75 66 61 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 47 59 56 75 75 87 71 60 42 34 26 41 200 MB DIV 45 26 42 70 72 64 78 38 64 9 12 -18 -5 LAND (KM) 252 289 332 277 259 259 276 293 363 504 576 675 795 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.5 14.0 14.7 15.5 16.3 17.2 18.1 18.8 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 92.9 94.0 95.1 96.2 97.2 99.3 101.3 103.7 106.3 109.2 112.1 114.8 117.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 11 11 11 10 11 13 14 15 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 7 23 24 7 0 8 36 27 6 7 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 788 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 37. 38. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 19. 28. 37. 44. 45. 43. 41. 37. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962010 INVEST 07/12/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962010 INVEST 07/12/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED