* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962010 07/12/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 39 48 56 62 66 67 69 70 70 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 39 48 56 62 66 67 69 70 70 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 45 49 53 58 63 66 SHEAR (KT) 20 26 26 23 17 18 23 16 13 11 14 9 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 1 6 6 4 4 0 2 6 0 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 66 80 77 89 104 84 89 107 91 92 80 96 97 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.2 28.2 27.9 28.1 27.8 27.2 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 153 153 151 148 148 145 147 143 136 131 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.9 -52.5 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 84 86 85 87 84 87 82 75 73 73 68 64 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 86 100 99 88 89 67 74 79 90 97 79 77 200 MB DIV 92 66 69 58 61 77 48 58 52 52 37 39 27 LAND (KM) 369 357 350 380 413 490 557 695 917 1042 1219 1406 1546 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.6 14.1 14.5 14.7 14.8 14.7 14.3 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 96.6 97.8 99.0 100.1 101.2 103.5 106.2 109.1 112.1 115.0 117.7 119.8 121.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 11 12 14 14 15 14 12 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 1 0 4 9 7 10 30 24 31 24 14 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 33. 36. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 23. 31. 37. 41. 42. 44. 45. 45. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962010 INVEST 07/12/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 86.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962010 INVEST 07/12/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY