* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962010 07/13/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 36 40 48 55 62 66 68 69 69 69 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 36 40 48 55 62 66 68 69 69 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 36 40 44 48 54 59 62 64 SHEAR (KT) 27 26 25 20 20 22 21 15 14 6 12 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 6 7 4 4 3 2 4 -1 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 73 73 87 105 109 86 86 76 82 76 104 110 94 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.9 26.9 26.1 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 153 153 153 151 148 147 143 145 134 125 121 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.6 -53.2 -52.6 -52.2 -53.4 -52.6 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 9 6 6 4 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 85 86 86 85 87 87 81 77 76 72 67 64 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 97 102 97 85 82 77 85 89 77 81 65 60 200 MB DIV 62 64 67 86 97 58 49 44 52 23 66 47 13 LAND (KM) 377 368 377 406 435 505 571 722 919 1038 1213 1387 1544 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.6 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.2 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 97.7 98.7 99.7 100.7 101.7 104.0 106.6 109.6 112.6 115.6 118.4 120.8 123.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 12 14 15 15 14 13 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 1 8 9 9 9 27 19 25 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 23. 30. 37. 41. 43. 44. 44. 44. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962010 INVEST 07/13/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 86.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962010 INVEST 07/13/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED