* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962010 07/13/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 46 52 55 57 58 60 60 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 46 52 55 57 58 60 60 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 28 30 33 36 39 42 45 47 SHEAR (KT) 21 23 21 20 17 16 17 20 13 9 7 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 9 7 4 2 6 4 1 3 0 1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 67 76 87 99 96 79 59 64 92 91 109 56 110 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.6 27.6 27.2 26.2 25.9 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 153 153 152 150 147 142 142 137 126 122 125 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.6 -52.7 -52.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 7 6 5 3 2 1 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 88 86 86 86 87 83 81 73 75 69 69 68 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 90 102 102 92 92 93 100 92 91 103 103 88 78 200 MB DIV 74 81 93 110 89 49 63 40 26 22 44 12 46 LAND (KM) 401 396 408 434 461 507 617 809 928 1122 1324 1501 1676 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.4 14.0 14.6 15.2 15.6 15.6 15.4 15.0 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 98.4 99.4 100.4 101.5 102.5 105.1 108.0 111.2 114.3 117.4 120.1 122.2 124.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 10 11 14 15 16 15 14 12 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 6 9 7 29 23 18 18 9 0 0 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 21. 27. 30. 32. 34. 35. 35. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962010 INVEST 07/13/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 86.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962010 INVEST 07/13/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY