* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962010 07/13/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 35 42 48 53 55 53 51 52 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 35 42 48 53 55 53 51 52 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 36 36 35 34 34 SHEAR (KT) 17 17 16 18 17 14 14 11 5 11 7 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 10 3 0 4 1 2 2 3 4 5 0 4 SHEAR DIR 72 87 88 80 90 80 70 89 145 135 121 81 145 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.0 26.9 25.9 25.0 25.3 25.7 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 152 149 144 136 135 125 115 118 122 124 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -52.2 -52.9 -53.2 -52.4 -53.2 -52.9 -53.5 -52.9 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 6 6 5 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 88 87 85 88 85 80 76 73 69 64 62 61 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 102 95 87 90 77 78 74 61 56 64 44 37 24 200 MB DIV 80 83 119 104 68 37 35 41 25 27 26 1 6 LAND (KM) 307 327 347 382 399 500 740 849 1077 1305 1579 1835 2089 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.6 16.1 16.6 16.7 16.6 16.1 15.7 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 99.7 100.9 102.0 103.4 104.7 107.6 111.1 114.6 118.0 121.3 124.3 127.1 129.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 14 16 17 16 16 15 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 4 29 28 11 32 8 10 15 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 25. 27. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 23. 28. 30. 28. 26. 27. 26. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962010 INVEST 07/13/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 87.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962010 INVEST 07/13/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY