* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962010 07/13/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 45 51 54 55 53 52 53 55 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 45 51 54 55 53 52 53 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 29 31 34 36 37 38 37 36 38 SHEAR (KT) 17 18 18 19 18 15 11 10 10 14 16 8 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 -2 1 1 2 1 3 1 3 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 70 75 77 84 82 78 80 104 112 121 110 113 63 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.5 26.7 26.5 25.3 25.1 26.1 26.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 153 150 147 142 134 131 119 116 126 130 134 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 6 3 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 86 86 87 85 83 80 75 76 71 70 66 66 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 97 90 96 87 84 93 82 67 76 76 58 52 26 200 MB DIV 78 97 85 62 45 36 18 25 36 49 33 21 -7 LAND (KM) 327 345 365 377 416 560 751 945 1197 1483 1787 2055 2307 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.3 16.0 16.6 16.8 16.7 16.2 15.4 14.6 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 100.4 101.6 102.8 104.3 105.7 108.9 112.6 116.3 119.9 123.2 126.2 128.9 131.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 14 15 15 17 18 17 17 15 15 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 12 33 12 30 10 16 3 6 0 0 1 3 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 14. 20. 24. 26. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 20. 26. 29. 31. 28. 27. 28. 30. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962010 INVEST 07/13/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 86.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962010 INVEST 07/13/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY