* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962010 07/14/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 44 49 53 53 51 52 53 55 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 44 49 53 53 51 52 53 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 31 33 35 35 35 36 39 SHEAR (KT) 21 25 25 23 15 14 8 7 17 14 16 12 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 5 2 0 1 2 0 0 2 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 74 61 65 69 71 82 106 116 136 129 119 128 124 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.7 26.9 26.9 26.3 25.5 25.7 26.8 27.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 150 147 143 135 135 129 120 122 132 139 137 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.9 -52.5 -53.2 -52.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 5 5 2 1 0 1 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 87 89 85 82 80 78 76 73 73 71 68 63 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 86 96 97 89 87 88 88 83 84 77 82 70 73 200 MB DIV 112 86 65 53 53 13 15 44 76 42 20 19 -4 LAND (KM) 350 374 379 411 453 675 826 1082 1340 1614 1875 2115 2266 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.6 16.4 16.0 15.3 14.5 13.6 13.2 LONG(DEG W) 101.6 103.0 104.3 105.7 107.1 110.5 114.2 117.7 121.1 124.0 126.5 128.6 130.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 14 15 17 17 16 16 14 12 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 32 11 30 10 8 7 14 4 0 0 13 22 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 24. 28. 28. 26. 27. 28. 30. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962010 INVEST 07/14/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962010 INVEST 07/14/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY