* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962010 07/14/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 42 48 49 50 49 50 50 49 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 42 48 49 50 49 50 50 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 32 34 SHEAR (KT) 21 23 27 27 22 21 20 18 11 6 8 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 5 1 4 3 1 -1 2 1 -4 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 75 90 94 99 89 72 68 65 77 116 136 207 197 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.0 27.0 26.0 25.5 26.1 26.4 26.1 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 146 144 141 136 136 125 120 126 129 125 127 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 88 84 83 79 77 73 73 75 74 70 68 64 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 8 9 9 10 11 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 97 92 86 88 81 74 85 83 64 65 45 37 200 MB DIV 93 75 54 51 36 1 21 20 46 -4 6 5 -13 LAND (KM) 430 451 493 542 623 804 979 1225 1475 1727 1973 2190 2371 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.2 16.3 16.0 15.6 15.3 14.9 14.6 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 104.0 105.3 106.6 108.1 109.5 112.9 116.2 119.4 122.5 125.4 128.1 130.7 133.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 14 14 15 16 15 15 15 14 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 13 27 8 10 13 4 13 0 0 0 2 3 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -6. -6. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 6. 4. 5. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 17. 23. 24. 25. 24. 25. 25. 24. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962010 INVEST 07/14/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962010 INVEST 07/14/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY