* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962010 07/14/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 40 43 45 47 49 48 45 41 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 40 43 45 47 49 48 45 41 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 34 SHEAR (KT) 23 30 29 23 24 22 18 14 7 3 1 3 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 0 3 2 2 1 1 1 -3 -1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 79 89 99 86 80 62 56 84 57 65 218 276 177 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.2 27.2 26.7 25.8 25.5 26.1 26.2 25.6 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 145 143 138 138 133 123 119 125 126 119 115 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.1 -53.0 -52.7 -53.3 -53.3 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 83 80 79 75 76 75 73 75 75 73 72 71 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 10 10 10 12 11 11 11 11 9 7 4 850 MB ENV VOR 94 90 83 83 83 78 61 85 86 91 84 66 46 200 MB DIV 74 67 66 42 28 11 11 45 48 38 47 27 21 LAND (KM) 475 513 546 641 757 874 1082 1293 1521 1734 1920 2050 2177 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.5 15.7 16.1 16.1 15.9 15.5 15.2 15.1 15.3 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.7 107.9 109.5 111.0 114.2 117.4 120.3 123.0 125.4 127.6 129.6 131.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 14 15 15 15 15 14 12 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 31 9 9 10 14 19 8 0 0 1 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 18. 20. 22. 24. 23. 20. 16. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962010 INVEST 07/14/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962010 INVEST 07/14/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED