* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962010 07/14/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 40 46 49 48 46 43 42 38 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 40 46 49 48 46 43 42 38 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 33 33 33 33 34 36 37 37 36 34 SHEAR (KT) 29 28 26 28 26 17 11 8 10 8 7 2 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 1 5 3 1 3 -1 1 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 79 91 82 73 55 46 45 80 96 90 89 184 138 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.3 26.6 25.5 24.7 24.4 24.3 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 144 141 138 136 137 129 118 110 107 105 103 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 80 78 77 80 76 77 74 69 67 67 67 71 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 12 12 13 12 13 13 11 10 8 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 88 80 83 79 74 57 58 64 52 46 33 25 7 200 MB DIV 60 71 55 36 16 8 15 29 7 24 33 27 2 LAND (KM) 534 580 638 696 761 838 896 975 1052 1153 1307 1454 1566 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.4 17.5 17.7 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.9 109.0 110.0 110.9 112.7 114.6 116.5 118.2 120.1 122.2 124.1 126.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 9 13 25 21 16 6 21 9 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 20. 19. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 4. 3. 0. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 16. 19. 18. 16. 13. 12. 8. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962010 INVEST 07/14/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962010 INVEST 07/14/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY