* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062010 07/15/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 37 39 43 43 43 38 36 33 31 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 37 39 43 43 43 38 36 33 31 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 32 32 32 31 32 33 33 32 31 30 SHEAR (KT) 27 26 24 25 20 14 10 9 10 7 2 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 3 5 6 -1 1 1 1 0 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 87 80 69 56 46 42 96 94 102 98 89 155 147 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.3 25.2 24.5 24.2 24.1 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 137 133 132 131 127 115 107 104 104 102 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 79 80 80 75 76 73 69 68 68 67 69 70 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 12 12 13 12 12 13 11 10 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 82 79 74 71 56 33 46 32 38 20 19 0 1 200 MB DIV 65 41 14 13 22 -3 24 -1 17 28 30 27 -4 LAND (KM) 531 561 606 658 713 771 819 928 1052 1174 1294 1455 1587 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.8 17.9 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.2 109.1 110.0 110.8 112.6 114.4 116.4 118.5 120.5 122.3 124.3 126.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 9 14 19 16 11 4 13 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 17. 17. 17. 16. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 5. 3. 2. -1. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 13. 13. 13. 8. 6. 3. 1. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062010 SIX 07/15/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062010 SIX 07/15/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY