* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062010 07/15/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 29 30 30 29 28 25 24 23 22 21 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 29 30 30 29 28 25 24 23 22 21 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 27 26 25 24 24 25 25 24 24 23 SHEAR (KT) 27 30 31 23 21 20 10 11 7 4 5 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 7 7 1 0 1 -2 1 0 0 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 70 65 59 54 59 79 72 57 95 89 68 354 156 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.7 25.9 25.1 24.5 24.2 24.0 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 141 136 133 133 131 122 114 108 104 102 101 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 81 79 77 74 74 72 66 64 63 66 64 64 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 13 11 12 10 9 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 71 64 53 33 29 25 31 16 -1 9 -9 -20 200 MB DIV 55 15 14 23 8 -7 1 -1 20 32 33 20 -7 LAND (KM) 574 607 653 702 757 786 860 990 1107 1235 1370 1479 1587 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 107.9 108.8 109.6 110.5 111.3 113.2 115.2 117.2 119.2 121.2 123.2 124.9 126.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 23 19 15 10 4 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 16. 17. 16. 15. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062010 SIX 07/15/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062010 SIX 07/15/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY