* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062010 07/15/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 31 30 31 27 26 22 23 22 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 30 31 30 31 27 26 22 23 22 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 28 27 26 26 26 26 25 24 24 SHEAR (KT) 29 29 24 22 22 15 13 14 12 13 6 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 6 0 -2 2 0 2 -1 -4 2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 58 56 54 54 66 76 57 63 89 96 141 71 136 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.3 25.6 25.0 24.6 24.4 24.4 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 138 133 130 130 126 118 112 108 106 107 103 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.1 -52.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 80 78 75 73 73 68 63 61 59 59 60 58 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 11 9 8 6 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 62 50 31 20 26 24 28 1 3 -14 -23 -27 200 MB DIV 31 21 37 20 -8 13 -1 12 0 4 10 4 -5 LAND (KM) 581 613 657 706 730 750 853 977 1069 1197 1340 1494 1626 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.2 16.5 17.0 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 108.3 109.1 109.9 110.8 111.6 113.5 115.6 117.4 118.9 120.7 122.6 124.5 126.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 10 9 8 8 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 17 20 17 11 7 3 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 732 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -10. -10. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -3. -4. -8. -7. -8. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062010 SIX 07/15/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062010 SIX 07/15/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY