* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062010 07/15/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 34 33 31 28 26 24 21 20 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 34 33 31 28 26 24 21 20 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 29 27 27 26 26 25 24 24 23 SHEAR (KT) 23 20 21 22 21 16 13 15 12 9 2 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 2 -2 -3 3 -1 0 -2 -2 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 55 40 53 62 70 86 76 91 80 113 166 196 230 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.6 26.3 26.2 25.9 25.0 24.4 24.1 24.0 24.0 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 134 129 126 125 122 112 106 103 102 102 100 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.0 -52.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 76 73 68 64 63 63 61 60 58 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 12 11 12 10 9 7 6 5 5 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 56 45 28 15 21 13 22 21 15 -1 -26 -16 -15 200 MB DIV 32 58 29 -13 -8 0 0 14 21 0 -7 -1 -8 LAND (KM) 509 544 590 646 660 682 798 921 1018 1143 1308 1449 1595 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.6 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.8 109.6 110.5 111.4 113.3 115.5 117.4 118.9 120.6 122.7 124.6 126.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 9 10 10 10 8 8 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 7 12 12 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 841 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062010 SIX 07/15/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062010 SIX 07/15/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY