* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062010 07/16/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 27 26 27 26 23 21 19 18 16 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 27 26 27 26 23 21 19 18 16 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 22 22 21 19 19 18 18 18 17 16 16 SHEAR (KT) 18 21 20 22 18 10 14 14 12 3 5 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 -1 -3 2 -1 0 -3 -1 1 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 36 47 48 64 69 75 69 73 79 95 127 191 191 SST (C) 27.3 26.9 26.4 26.0 26.0 26.1 25.6 24.6 23.9 23.8 23.8 23.7 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 132 127 123 123 124 119 108 101 100 100 99 95 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.7 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 77 76 73 72 68 68 62 63 60 62 58 59 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 11 12 12 8 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 27 15 17 19 14 17 7 0 -27 -27 -22 -22 200 MB DIV 54 33 -4 -14 9 2 22 8 19 5 10 -8 -13 LAND (KM) 499 543 589 626 624 685 798 912 1044 1203 1371 1504 1652 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.6 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.5 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 108.6 109.4 110.1 111.1 112.0 114.0 115.8 117.7 119.7 121.7 123.7 125.7 127.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 7 10 5 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 776 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -6. -7. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062010 SIX 07/16/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062010 SIX 07/16/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY