* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062010 07/16/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 24 23 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 24 23 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 21 20 19 19 19 18 17 17 16 DIS SHEAR (KT) 19 17 17 15 10 11 14 13 10 7 16 13 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 0 1 -3 -1 -6 0 -5 -4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 47 50 62 75 72 75 76 101 119 118 156 181 193 SST (C) 26.7 26.2 25.8 25.8 25.9 25.7 24.9 24.0 23.8 23.6 23.5 23.3 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 130 125 121 121 122 120 112 102 100 98 97 95 91 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 73 74 71 67 66 61 62 62 57 56 53 49 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 17 20 24 23 13 15 20 -2 -12 -16 -17 -19 200 MB DIV 27 -4 0 9 -1 -1 17 9 0 -10 -15 -18 -14 LAND (KM) 534 586 589 593 612 714 834 947 1090 1241 1378 1503 1636 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.5 18.6 18.8 19.1 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 109.4 110.3 111.1 112.0 112.9 114.8 116.7 118.6 120.4 122.3 124.3 126.3 128.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -16. -18. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062010 SIX 07/16/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062010 SIX 07/16/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY