* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062010 07/16/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 17 15 10 9 8 8 3 7 9 14 10 16 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 1 2 0 0 2 1 6 4 6 6 -1 SHEAR DIR 56 66 76 84 74 111 137 217 254 249 294 298 314 SST (C) 25.6 25.4 24.6 23.4 22.5 22.2 22.3 21.9 21.7 21.6 21.7 22.3 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 122 119 111 99 89 86 87 82 80 78 80 86 91 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 74 70 67 67 65 65 66 63 61 55 53 46 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 10 10 9 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 32 42 56 76 63 47 37 25 35 25 19 5 200 MB DIV 21 23 -3 -15 -9 4 -11 -10 -12 -14 -15 -17 -9 LAND (KM) 568 623 704 779 887 1117 1360 1621 1871 2023 1807 1532 1253 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.5 21.8 21.9 22.0 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 112.6 114.2 115.7 117.5 119.2 122.7 126.1 129.3 132.3 135.0 137.6 140.3 143.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 16 17 17 16 15 15 14 12 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -16. -23. -28. -31. -34. -38. -41. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062010 SIX 07/16/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062010 SIX 07/16/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY